NASCAR Playoffs Preview
- Ashland Connelly
- 2 hours ago
- 4 min read
With the thrilling season finale at Daytona completed, the grid is set for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. There were many surprises in this year's grid: Josh Berry had a miracle run at Las Vegas to secure himself a spot in the playoffs, Ross Chastain's late race heroics got him a victory at Charlotte, Bubba Wallace finally broke through and snapped a 100-race winless streak with a victory at the Brickyard 400, and Austin Dillion had a run for the ages to score the win in Richmond. Of the playoff drivers, Shane Van Gisbergen and Denny Hamlin lead the field with 4 wins, with Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell following close behind with 3. Of the drivers that made it in on points, Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman have been through down seasons as they hope to break through in the postseason. The remainder of the playoff grid consists of William Byron, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, and Austin Cindric. As we enter the Round of 16, here's how the playoff grid looks as they enter the first round of cutoff races.
Cook Out Southern 500 - Darlington Raceway
The legendary Southern 500 opens up the Round of 16, and it should serve as a great early challenge to separate the true championship contenders. That said, Darlington does favor some of the dark horses in the playoffs. With its place as the cutoff race last year, Chase Briscoe scored a "walk-off" victory with a late-race defence over Kyle Busch. Additionally, Austin Dillon has had strong runs at the track in the past. Darlington has a history of producing wild winners, as seen with Erik Jones in 2022 and the aforementioned Briscoe last year. At the spring race this year, Kyle Larson wrecked into the inside wall twice, William Byron dominated the middle stages of the race, Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace had strong runs, Ryan Blaney nearly had the race won, but it was Denny Hamlin who stole the victory on a late race restart. Coming into the fall edition of the Crown Jewel event, I expect a similar carousel of competitors at the front of the field, and my pick to win is Christopher Bell.
Enjoy Illinois 300 - World Wide Technology Raceway
Entering year four of NASCAR's debut at World Wide Technology Raceway (colloquially known as Gateway), the race has provided some thrilling stories. From the last lap duel in year one, Kyle Busch's potentially final win in year two, and the insane fuel strategy finish in year three, this race will surely prove to fans it's worthy of its playoff date. Flat tracks have been the bread and butter of Team Penske in recent history, especially in last year's edition of the race, where an issue that befell the Penske car of Ryan Blaney benefited none other than his teammate Austin Cindric. This race, though, my pick belongs to the 2022 winner and the pair's fellow teammate, Joey Logano.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race - Bristol Motor Speedway
The Bristol Night Race is an icon of NASCAR lore. The Last Great Collussiem has been home to some of the most iconic and dramatic moments in NASCAR history over the course of its history. While recent editions of the race have been duds, there have still been instances of playoff drama, like when the defending champion Joey Logano had his playoff hopes end in smoke after Corey LaJoie triggered a wreck. In a field stacked with strong short-track drivers at a track as chaotic as Bristol, this is truly the most evenly matched race of the opening round. Kyle Larson dominated the spring race at the track, and I expect him to do much of the same in the playoffs.
When all is said and done, the first four drivers to leave the playoffs this year will be Austin Dillon, Ross Chastain, and two surprises with these picks, Alex Bowman and Tyler Reddick. Dillon, frankly, should be ecstatic that he even qualified for the playoffs with the magical win at Richmond. Ross Chastain and Trackhouse Racing as a whole have been lacking speed throughout the year on non-road courses. Now for the two surprising picks. Alex Bowman, had it not been for superspeedway chaos that put Ryan Blaney at the front at Daytona, wouldn't be in the playoffs, especially given that the rest of the Top 5 needed a win to get in. The 48 team has been lacking competitive drive all year, and Bowman has done nothing to shake the reputation that he is the weak link of Hendrick Motorsports. Now for Tyler Reddick. Shockingly, last year's regular-season champion has had a dramatic falloff. Some of it could be due to distractions from the impending 23XI-Front Row Motorsports VS NASCAR lawsuit, but Reddick just hasn't been able to put it all together this season, and while he sits higher in the full-season points than his teammate, I unfortunately can't see him breaking out of this first round.
Now for the surprise breakthroughs. Josh Berry is one of the most polarizing drivers at the moment, but I'm a firm believer in his talents at these sets of tracks, particularly Bristol and Darlington (the latter of which he performed well at before being spun off the bumper of Reddick in the spring). Another odd pick is Bubba Wallace, who I have making the next round over his 23XI teammate. Ever since he finally broke through at Indy, the 23 team has been clicking week in and week out. While they had back-to-back great runs undone by mistakes at Richmond and Daytona (the former by crew error and the latter by spotter-driver error), Bubba has gotten hot in the fall before, particularly in 2022 and 2023, and I can see him at least getting out of this round of the playoffs. Additionally, while some have him falling off here, I think the points cushion secured by Shane Van Gisbergen is going to be enough to catapult him into the next round, even if the selection of tracks coming up is nowhere near his wheelhouse.
These are my predictions for the Round of 16, but only time will tell how accurate they turn out. This series tends to produce chaos, and I'm counting on it this postseason.
