WLTL's Daytona 500 Preview

It's that time of year again, the crown jewel of stock car racing. NASCAR begins its season with the Daytona 500. After an incredibly rocky (and snowy) Clash at Bowman Gray to open the year, there are many competitors to watch as drivers compete for the greatest honors in the sport this Sunday.

VETERANS

As the field continues to get younger, many legends from the 2010s are still in the hunt for the Harley J. Earl Trophy (one of the all-time best sports trophies, in my opinion). 3-time Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin came incredibly close to winning last year's race, but he was swept up in a last-lap wreck when Cole Custer's spotter was watching the wrong car. Denny is wicked fast on superspeedways, and his rival, Joey Logano, is, too. The 2015 Daytona 500 winner and 3-time series champion has spent a decade chasing a repeat at his young glory, and all the while, his now former teammate has been missing it from his trophy cabinet. Brad Keselowski was an absolute rocket at Talladega, but Daytona, and specifically the 500, has alluded "Bad Brad" his whole career. The RFK cars have a lot of speed this year, and he should be in contention late. A driver without a lot of speed this year is, unfortunately, Kyle Busch. Despite leading the 2023 race late, a string of cautions would ruin the 2-time series champion's effort to win the race. With RCR struggling to field competitive cars, this is realistically one of Busch's last chances to fill the void in his legendary trophy cabinet.

ROOKIES

Along with the many acquisitions and team changes in recent years, there's a new crop of young guns that can make their name in the sport on its biggest stage. Carson Hocevar impressed many last year, and he is many's pick to get his first career victory this season. On the other end, Riley Herbst was arguably the series's largest disappointment with 23XI. While he has a year under his belt to adapt, many have already pencilled him in as a bust. On the subject of Toyota driver busts, Ty Gibbs has been shockingly awful during his tenure in the Cup Series. While it is still very early, his former championship rival, Noah Gragson, has at least found himself a decent role in the mid-pack for Front Row Motorsports. His teammates, Todd Gilliland and Zane Smith, have both had their sparks of brilliance and will surely be near the front at Daytona during stretches of the race. John Hunter Nemecheck has recently, finally, been promoted to a full-time series ride with Legacy Motor Club, and while he was the definition of mediocre, the second-generation driver should still have a lot of speed at Daytona. However, the big story of the younger class is rookie Connor Zilisch. Fresh off of winning 10 races last year in the now formerly named NASCAR Xfinity Series and finishing second overall in this year's 24 Hours of Daytona, the phenom makes his Cup Series debut this Sunday, and many are keen to see how he performs as he takes to the highest rung of competition he has competed at in his young career.

COMPETITORS

Some drivers lie between the veterans and the rookies, but one thing is certain about this group: they are wicked fast. When it comes to Superspeedways, Ryan Blaney is the class of the field. The Penske driver has won just about every Superspeedway race on the schedule, save for the 500, which, in 2022, was stolen by his teammate. While his underperformances on the majority of the schedule have been damning, it's clear that Austin Cindric's "bread and butter" have been Superspeedways and Road Courses. The 2022 Daytona 500 winner is coming off a 2025 spring Talladega win last year and has been dominant on Superspeedways recently. Another driver who has quietly been one of the best on Superspeedways has been Bubba Wallace. While he only has one win in the 2021 Talladega fall race, he nonetheless consistently finds himself near the front of the field, fighting for the win. The same goes for #43 of Erik Jones, who nearly won his way into the playoffs last year at Daytona. The 2018 Coke Zero 400 winner is one to watch on Superspeedways for his careful maneuvers and well-timed runs, as is 2021 Daytona 500 winner Michael McDowell. While his 2025 season was underwhelming, McDowell still proved that superspeedways are where he operates best last season. Similarly, Chase Briscoe performed excellently on Superspeedways last year. In his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing, Briscoe impressed many with his consistent running and won last year's fall Talladega race with a last-lap pass. His teammate, Christopher Bell, similarly impressed last year. He won the spring Atlanta race and was very close to winning the 500 before he was wrecked from the lead with 5 laps to go. Another driver who nearly won it all last year was Tyler Reddick, coming just a few feet shy of passing for the win when the checkered flag fell. Reddick was a 2024 Talladega winner, and, after an uncharacteristic down season last year with 23XI, Reddick hopes to rebound in 2026. Another driver looking to rebound to past form is Ross Chastain. He won at Talladega in 2022, and nearly won the 500 in 2024 with a daring pass that unfortunately sent him spinning into the infield. Chastain is one of the most aggressive drivers in the field, and he is always a "Boom or Bust" when it comes to Superspeedways. On the topic of "Boom or Bust", Hendrick Motorsports won 2 of 6 Superspeedway races last year, yet they are incredibly inconsistent. Alex Bowman, the weak link of the team, sometimes finds himself in the front late, but almost always has issues. Kyle Larson, the defending champion, similarly always finds trouble on Superspeedways and has yet to win a single race on the track type in his career. Then there's the curious case of Chase Elliott. Dominant at Atlanta and Talladega, but Daytona can never seem to fall his way. And lastly, William Byron, the two-time Daytona 500 winner of 2024 and 2025, who somehow manages to get the cards to fall right exclusively at Daytona and not at the other two tracks. Hendrick is the class of the field every Sunday, normally, so expect to see the four near the front, but also know that something always goes wrong for Hendrick Motorsports.

WILD CARDS

When it comes to Daytona, expect to see these guys near the front, especially around the midpoints of the race as the pack begins to fan out. When the dust settles, don't be too surprised if one of them takes the crown. It seems strange to mention 7-time champion Jimmie Johnson in this category, but as he is running a part-time schedule as the owner of Legacy Motor Club, his winning his 3rd Daytona 500 would be an incredible story. Joining him are other drivers who have to qualify for the race, like BJ McLeod, former Coke 600 winner Casey Mears, Anthony Alfredo, incumbent NASCAR Truck Series Champion Corey Heim, JJ Yeley, Chandler Smith, and Justin Allgeier. There are two former winners in this category, Rickey Stenhouse Jr. (2023), who is a Superspeedway phenom and also won at Talladega back in the fall of 2024, and Austin Dillon (2018), who won the race by intentionally spinning Aric Almirola in the final corner. Austin's brother Ty had a wild season last year, nearly winning a $1 million bracket challenge and only losing to Joe Gibbs Racing's Ty Gibbs. There is Daniel Suarez, who was only a couple of inches shy of winning at Daytona during the fall of 2025 as he lost out to Ryan Blaney, and is the series' lone Mexican driver. Cole Custer, who was on a rampage during the 500 last year, causing two wrecks and still nearly winning the race before being collected in a mess. Cody Ware, who, while usually a backmarker, has his best finish of 4th at Daytona. Josh Berry, who got a surprise win last year for the Wood Brothers at Las Vegas. AJ Allmendinger, who has been a Cup Series mainstay, though Superspeedways have never been his strongsuit. Ryan Preece, who has a tricky history with Superspeedways, finished 2nd in the spring Talladega race last year while also claiming two of the wildest flips of the decade at Daytona in 2023 and 2025. And lastly, road course superstar Shane Van Gisbergen has been working on improving his oval skills, and his showing during the fall Daytona race was an impressive showing of what could become of the former Australian V8 Supercars champion.

MY PREDICTIONS

As for what I predict for the race, I think we will see some great three- and four-wide racing throughout. The Next-Gen has proved that its Superspeedway Package is one of the best all-time for racing. In a bit of a destructive prediction, I believe that this will be the first time a Next-Gen car tests the catchfences at Daytona. There have been 9 NASCAR Cup Series flips since the advent of the Next-Gen car, with 4 (Harrison Burton in 2022, Ryan Preece in 2023 and 2025, and Josh Berry in 2024) coming at Daytona. None of these have seen a car impact the catchfence (though Michael McDowell's harrowing wreck in the 2024 Coke Zero 400 came close), and I think this weekend will see the first such incident in this generation of cars. The last catchfence wreck in the NASCAR Cup Series was the final lap of the 2021 Daytona 500, and the last catchfence wreck in NASCAR was Myatt Snider's blowover in the (newly named) NASCAR O'Reily Autoparts Series in 2022. Additionally, I expect one fairly big wreck during Stage 3 of the race that takes out a decent chunk of the field as drivers vie for the sport's greatest honor. As for the winner, I think it'll be a fairly predictable winner for this year's race. My heart says Bubba Wallace; however, everything in my head points towards a Chase Elliott victory this year. It'll be a tight one, as my final prediction is that this year's finish will make the race an instant classic. Be it a photo finish or just a tight sprint to the end, this year's race will be one for the history books and fondly remembered by fans for generations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cvyw_qw8EW0